Keller Grain -

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5653.25, up 30.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,439.50, down 17.50

The page has turned, a new month and quarter. While we believe it brings a breath of fresh air to the market environment, it may not happen immediately as we await the April 2nd tariff announcement. However, there is reason to believe the market and participants have begun discounting some of the worst scenarios. Furthermore, we expect a better slate of data this week than last Friday’s stagflationary stew of Core PCE and Michigan Consumer Survey. It could begin with final March SPGI Manufacturing PMI at 8:45 am CT, followed by the more closely watched ISM report, due today 9:00 am CT.

E-mini S&P futures put in a low within the opening bell’s first 30 minutes. Price action held out above rare major four-star support at 5499.25-5527.50 and responded to major three-star support at 5534-5538.75. This flush took the E-mini S&P down more than 1% on the open and the E-mini NQ down more than 2%, but some stability crept into the tape. The opening range was decisively breached to the north within the next hour and set the stage for a consolidation just below unchanged for the E-mini S&P. In fact, the E-mini Dow quickly went into the green. However, the E-mini NQ’s lag laid the groundwork for it, covering the gap before the end of the session, and a ramp ensued. This price action ultimately helped stabilize the tape into this new month and we view support aligning with Friday’s settlement in the E-mini S&P as a critical battle ground it must hold out above at 5617.25-5623. From there, a trade through first resistance, a major three-star level will help invite fresh buying, coming in at….

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