Keller Grain -

WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 71.48 up +2.12 [+3.06%]

WTI Crude Oil futures were up sharply yesterday on the news that President Trump may be considering secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. This catalyst caused us to flip our bias to Neutral / Bullish yesterday.

Today, futures are higher by +0.16 [+0.22%] to 71.64

The macro environment is trading risk off with treasuries markedly stronger and equities marginally weaker. The Dollar is mixed, showing strength against the Euro and Pound while weaker against the Yen. A continuation of Dollar strength into tariff day tomorrow may lead to some weakness in crude oil.

I have yet to see confirmation of the Russian secondary tariffs. If they do go into effect and are actually enforced, it is a considerably bullish catalyst.

Technical Analysis:

With yesterday’s move, we have adjusted our longer-term pivot and point of balance to the 68.78-69.09*** level. An additional two star resistance level was added at the overnight highs of 71.99**.

The news of Russia’s secondary tariffs ripped futures well through resistance yesterday and made a high near the key 72 psych level. Price moved through close to 4 key levels through yesterday’s session, something I have not seen for some time.

Volatility breeds volatility, and traders should be prepared for wider price swings after yesterday’s move. If the Russian secondary tariffs are enforced, there’s a chance front-month crude hits $80. If the story was leaked as a bargaining tactic or Trump refutes the story, there’s a chance crude goes back to $68.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at….

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